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v0.1
1853.HK$1.24-13.29%
Fair $1.24+0.0%

1853.HK

Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Company Limited

Utilities / Utilities - Independent Power ProducersHKSE

$1.24

-0.19 (-13.29%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.24Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $90.6M · quality 51.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 35/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 1853.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$579M

P/E

5.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

0.1x

↓

ROE

7.5%

↑

Gross Margin

13.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.43

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$11

TradingView lightweight chart

1853.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.240Periodo -43.6%
Fair value: $1.240

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.0%

FCF CAGR

-22.6%

FCF margin

5.3%

FCF / Net income

1.11x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.70B · net income $81.7M · FCF $90.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.2%-0.7% pts

Operating margin

7.2%-1.0% pts

Net margin

4.8%-2.1% pts

FCF margin

5.3%-6.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.70B$1.70B$1.81B$1.69B$1.65B
Net Income$81.7M$81.7M$99.9M$121.0M$114.7M
EBITDA$138.7M$138.7M$152.4M$186.1M$313.5M
EPS——0.210.260.25
Gross Margin13.2%13.2%14.2%15.7%13.9%
Operating Margin7.2%7.2%8.1%10.0%8.2%
Net Margin4.8%4.8%5.5%7.1%6.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.430.430.690.190.26
Current Ratio1.011.01———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$90.6M$90.6M$-88.4M$370.2M$195.7M
Returns
ROE7.5%7.5%9.6%12.2%12.6%
Valuation
P/E5.905.907.627.197.80
EV/EBITDA0.080.080.19-0.260.31
P/B0.530.530.730.880.98
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.6%-5.6%6.6%2.4%—
EPS Growth——-19.2%4.0%—
Dividend Yield2.8%2.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.3%

Total return

-12.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.21 → n/d

Residual

-15.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-15.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.