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1909.TW$9.04+1.23%
Fair $9.04+0.0%

1909.TW

Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsTaiwan

$9.04

+0.11 (+1.23%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.04Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 4/F
F-Score: 3/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 35% · confianza 10%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $65.1M · quality 21.0/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

4/100

F

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.05, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is -2.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 1909.TWLocal privado en este navegador · Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$11.7B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

16.7x

↑

ROE

-2.5%

↓

Gross Margin

9.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

2.05

↑
52-Week Range$9
$8$12

TradingView lightweight chart

1909.TW price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.040Periodo +47.4%
Fair value: $9.040

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.1%

FCF / Net income

-0.13x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $44.71B · net income $-516.6M · FCF $65.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

9.9%+1.6% pts

Operating margin

0.0%+1.0% pts

Net margin

-1.2%+0.6% pts

FCF margin

0.1%+1.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$44.71B$44.71B$47.80B$46.71B$52.97B
Net Income$-516.6M$-516.6M$-373.6M$-1.02B$-909.8M
EBITDA$3.13B$3.13B$3.41B$2.81B$3.48B
EPS——-0.28-0.77-0.71
Gross Margin9.9%9.9%9.8%9.7%8.3%
Operating Margin0.0%0.0%0.5%0.1%-0.9%
Net Margin-1.2%-1.2%-0.8%-2.2%-1.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.052.051.911.891.76
Current Ratio0.640.64———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$65.1M$65.1M$988.7M$-67.8M$-815.5M
Returns
ROE-2.5%-2.5%-1.7%-4.6%-3.8%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA16.7016.7016.1121.4217.99
P/B0.580.580.700.880.92
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.5%-6.5%2.3%-11.8%—
EPS Growth——63.6%-8.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -7.6%

Total return

-7.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.28 → n/d

Residual

-7.6%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-7.6%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.