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2281.HK$0.69+1.47%
Fair $0.69+0.0%

2281.HK

Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) Co., Ltd.

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated WaterHKSE

$0.69

+0.01 (+1.47%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.69Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 41/C
F-Score: 2/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $183.7M · quality 47.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 27/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

41/100

C

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 2281.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$593M

P/E

4.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

8.0x

↓

ROE

3.6%

↓

Gross Margin

33.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.68

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$1

TradingView lightweight chart

2281.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.690Periodo -69.6%
Fair value: $0.690

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

23.2%

FCF / Net income

2.63x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.24B · net income $109.2M · FCF $286.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

33.4%-3.1% pts

Operating margin

23.8%-6.3% pts

Net margin

8.8%-6.2% pts

FCF margin

23.2%+29.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.24B$1.24B$1.33B$1.29B$1.35B
Net Income$109.2M$109.2M$177.2M$209.9M$203.2M
EBITDA$251.0M$251.0M$322.3M$344.9M$392.9M
EPS0.130.130.210.240.24
Gross Margin33.4%33.4%34.8%34.5%36.5%
Operating Margin23.8%23.8%26.1%28.3%30.1%
Net Margin8.8%8.8%13.3%16.3%15.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.680.680.690.750.90
Current Ratio0.920.92———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$286.9M$286.9M$183.7M$86.5M$-81.2M
Returns
ROE3.6%3.6%6.1%7.5%7.7%
Valuation
P/E4.604.602.952.543.63
EV/EBITDA8.028.026.586.466.42
P/B0.200.200.180.190.28
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.0%-7.0%3.4%-4.9%—
EPS Growth-38.1%-38.1%-12.5%0.0%—
Dividend Yield6.7%6.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-22.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.06

Spread vs growth

-15.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-10.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.07

Spread vs growth

-27.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.12

Spread vs growth

-37.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +23.6%

Total return

+23.6%

Start / end P/E

2.8x → 5.3x

EPS bridge

0.21 → 0.13

Residual

-33.9%

EPS growth-38.1%
Multiple rerating+88.9%
Dividend+6.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-33.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.