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2623.HK$4.96+1.64%
Fair $4.96+0.0%

2623.HK

Hong Kong Gold Industry Group Limited

Basic Materials / Other Industrial Metals & MiningHKSE

$4.96

+0.08 (+1.64%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.96Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 31/D
F-Score: 1/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-243.1M · quality 44.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 7/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

31/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -18.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 2623.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Hong Kong Gold Industry Group Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.6B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-18.9%

↓

Gross Margin

4.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$5
$0$7

TradingView lightweight chart

2623.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.960Periodo +1.2%
Fair value: $4.960

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-65.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-486.9%

FCF / Net income

4.21x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $75.6M · net income $-87.5M · FCF $-368.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

4.1%-3.7% pts

Operating margin

-82.2%-85.7% pts

Net margin

-115.7%-118.8% pts

FCF margin

-486.9%-489.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$75.6M$75.6M$282.1M$1.26B$1.87B
Net Income$-87.5M$-87.5M$61.7M$50.5M$57.6M
EBITDA$-62.5M$-62.5M$96.6M$86.0M$97.7M
EPS-0.21-0.210.150.140.18
Gross Margin4.1%4.1%5.6%11.2%7.8%
Operating Margin-82.2%-82.2%-16.3%5.0%3.5%
Net Margin-115.7%-115.7%21.9%4.0%3.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.000.060.20
Current Ratio2.122.12———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-368.0M$-368.0M$-243.1M$-52.8M$50.6M
Returns
ROE-18.9%-18.9%11.3%10.3%16.3%
Valuation
P/E——4.273.736.95
EV/EBITDA——1.910.863.55
P/B4.494.490.480.381.13
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-73.2%-73.2%-77.7%-32.3%—
EPS Growth-241.6%-241.6%7.9%-25.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +978.3%

Total return

+978.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.15 → -0.21

Residual

+978.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+978.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.