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300021.SZ$4.00-1.96%
Fair $4.00+0.0%

300021.SZ

Dayu Irrigation Group Co.,Ltd

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated WaterShenzhen

$4.00

-0.08 (-1.96%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.00Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 26/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-350.5M · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

26/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 1.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300021.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Dayu Irrigation Group Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.1B

P/E

80.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

17.3x

↑

ROE

1.9%

↓

Gross Margin

21.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.99

↑
52-Week Range$4
$4$7

TradingView lightweight chart

300021.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.080Periodo +27.4%
Fair value: $4.000

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-9.3%

FCF / Net income

-7.17x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.76B · net income $48.9M · FCF $-350.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.4%-3.3% pts

Operating margin

6.1%-2.5% pts

Net margin

1.3%-1.6% pts

FCF margin

-9.3%-11.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.76B$3.76B$4.38B$3.45B$3.40B
Net Income$48.9M$48.9M$81.1M$50.1M$97.7M
EBITDA$276.1M$276.1M$334.4M$258.4M$289.5M
EPS0.050.050.090.060.11
Gross Margin21.4%21.4%17.8%23.9%24.7%
Operating Margin6.1%6.1%5.7%8.5%8.6%
Net Margin1.3%1.3%1.9%1.5%2.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.990.991.321.240.97
Current Ratio1.281.28———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-350.5M$-350.5M$523.5M$-365.3M$83.6M
Returns
ROE1.9%1.9%4.0%2.5%4.8%
Valuation
P/E80.0080.0040.2781.0239.69
EV/EBITDA17.2717.2712.8217.4615.47
P/B1.391.391.591.561.80
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-14.1%-14.1%26.8%1.5%—
EPS Growth-43.2%-43.2%60.3%-48.7%—
Dividend Yield1.5%1.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

87.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.35

Spread vs growth

-130.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

51.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.43

Spread vs growth

-94.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

29.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.69

Spread vs growth

-72.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -17.4%

Total return

-17.4%

Start / end P/E

52.1x → 74.5x

EPS bridge

0.09 → 0.05

Residual

-18.6%

EPS growth-43.2%
Multiple rerating+42.9%
Dividend+1.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-18.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.