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300169.SZ$5.58-3.13%
Fair $5.58+0.0%

300169.SZ

Changzhou Tiansheng New Materials Group Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / ChemicalsShenzhen

$5.58

-0.18 (-3.13%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.58Fund rank 17/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 13/F
F-Score: 5/9
High DebtDeclining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 35% · confianza 10%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-47.1M · quality 13.7/100

Data gap 17/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 9/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

13/100

F

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 6.53, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 300169.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Changzhou Tiansheng New Materials Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.9B

P/E

55.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

17.6x

↑

ROE

20.1%

↑

Gross Margin

21.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

6.53

↑
52-Week Range$6
$5$12

TradingView lightweight chart

300169.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.760Periodo -57.2%
Fair value: $5.580

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-8.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-10.5%

FCF / Net income

-3.60x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $448.2M · net income $13.1M · FCF $-47.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.8%+7.6% pts

Operating margin

-3.9%+4.0% pts

Net margin

2.9%+35.0% pts

FCF margin

-10.5%-6.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$448.2M$448.2M$531.2M$574.2M$584.7M
Net Income$13.1M$13.1M$-58.7M$-160.2M$-187.7M
EBITDA$122.1M$122.1M$29.2M$-61.9M$-92.6M
EPS0.040.04-0.18-0.49-0.58
Gross Margin21.8%21.8%21.6%16.5%14.2%
Operating Margin-3.9%-3.9%-1.1%-5.0%-7.9%
Net Margin2.9%2.9%-11.0%-27.9%-32.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity6.536.539.674.642.02
Current Ratio0.690.69———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-47.1M$-47.1M$-88.3M$137.9M$-21.7M
Returns
ROE20.1%20.1%-111.2%-142.4%-69.3%
Valuation
P/E55.8055.80———
EV/EBITDA17.6017.6092.99——
P/B28.0128.0142.6320.015.18
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-15.6%-15.6%-7.5%-1.8%—
EPS Growth122.3%122.3%63.4%15.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

131.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.50

Spread vs growth

-8.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

71.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.60

Spread vs growth

50.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

37.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.96

Spread vs growth

84.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -23.6%

Total return

-23.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.18 → 0.04

Residual

-23.6%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-23.6%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.