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300189.SZ$5.08-3.05%
Fair $5.08+0.0%

300189.SZ

Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Agricultural InputsShenzhen

$5.08

-0.16 (-3.05%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.08Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-21.2M · quality 44.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 300189.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.2B

P/E

46.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

31.4x

↑

ROE

15.4%

↑

Gross Margin

35.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.41

↑
52-Week Range$5
$4$10

TradingView lightweight chart

300189.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.080Periodo +21.1%
Fair value: $5.080

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-8.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.20x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $249.1M · net income $107.2M · FCF $-21.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

35.4%+3.3% pts

Operating margin

11.3%+22.8% pts

Net margin

43.0%+76.9% pts

FCF margin

-8.5%+17.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$249.1M$249.1M$156.5M$166.7M$190.6M
Net Income$107.2M$107.2M$-50.6M$-36.0M$-64.6M
EBITDA$171.6M$171.6M$-25.3M$-5.7M$-35.2M
EPS0.100.10-0.05-0.04-0.06
Gross Margin35.4%35.4%37.9%35.6%32.0%
Operating Margin11.3%11.3%-18.1%-13.9%-11.6%
Net Margin43.0%43.0%-32.4%-21.6%-33.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.410.410.310.010.03
Current Ratio2.142.14———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-21.2M$-21.2M$-273.0M$1.6M$-50.0M
Returns
ROE15.4%15.4%-7.0%-4.7%-8.0%
Valuation
P/E46.1846.18———
EV/EBITDA31.4131.41———
P/B7.487.485.044.235.09
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth59.2%59.2%-6.1%-12.5%—
EPS Growth311.7%311.7%-40.3%44.2%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

62.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.45

Spread vs growth

249.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

39.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.55

Spread vs growth

272.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

23.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.88

Spread vs growth

288.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +16.8%

Total return

+16.8%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.05 → 0.10

Residual

+16.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+16.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.