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300774.SZ$13.92-2.11%
Fair $13.92+0.0%

300774.SZ

BGT Group Co., Ltd.

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated WaterShenzhen

$13.92

-0.30 (-2.11%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.92Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 3/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $46.5M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 300774.SZLocal privado en este navegador · BGT Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.7B

P/E

139.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

36.4x

↑

ROE

5.7%

↑

Gross Margin

24.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.24

↓
52-Week Range$14
$8$29

TradingView lightweight chart

300774.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $13.92Periodo -21.8%
Fair value: $13.92

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-33.2%

FCF / Net income

-3.99x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.01B · net income $84.1M · FCF $-335.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

24.0%-7.5% pts

Operating margin

12.1%-11.0% pts

Net margin

8.3%+4.4% pts

FCF margin

-33.2%-30.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.01B$1.01B$1.04B$653.1M$839.0M
Net Income$84.1M$84.1M$133.3M$104.0M$33.0M
EBITDA$154.4M$154.4M$177.5M$175.7M$56.7M
EPS0.210.210.330.250.08
Gross Margin24.0%24.0%28.9%32.9%31.6%
Operating Margin12.1%12.1%18.6%21.5%23.1%
Net Margin8.3%8.3%12.8%15.9%3.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.240.240.010.150.01
Current Ratio1.051.05———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-335.7M$-335.7M$46.5M$51.3M$-23.8M
Returns
ROE5.7%5.7%9.0%7.2%2.4%
Valuation
P/E139.20139.2024.8240.96149.00
EV/EBITDA36.3836.3816.6123.2484.14
P/B3.753.752.232.933.53
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-2.8%-2.8%59.3%-22.2%—
EPS Growth-36.4%-36.4%32.0%212.5%—
Dividend Yield0.2%0.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

80.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.24

Spread vs growth

-116.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

48.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.49

Spread vs growth

-84.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

27.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.41

Spread vs growth

-64.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +59.4%

Total return

+59.4%

Start / end P/E

26.5x → 66.3x

EPS bridge

0.33 → 0.21

Residual

-54.6%

EPS growth-36.4%
Multiple rerating+150.3%
Dividend+0.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-54.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.