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300856.SZ$13.32+4.72%
Fair $13.32+0.0%

300856.SZ

Nanjing COSMOS Chemical Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / ChemicalsShenzhen

$13.32

+0.60 (+4.72%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.32Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $137.1M · quality 46.3/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 3.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300856.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Nanjing COSMOS Chemical Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.3B

P/E

60.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

19.9x

↑

ROE

3.9%

↑

Gross Margin

29.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.25

↑
52-Week Range$13
$12$22

TradingView lightweight chart

300856.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $13.32Periodo -9.2%
Fair value: $13.32

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-15.1%

FCF / Net income

-2.08x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.48B · net income $108.0M · FCF $-224.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.7%-7.0% pts

Operating margin

11.1%-13.7% pts

Net margin

7.3%-14.7% pts

FCF margin

-15.1%-16.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.48B$1.48B$2.28B$2.40B$1.76B
Net Income$108.0M$108.0M$562.5M$733.6M$388.1M
EBITDA$336.6M$336.6M$875.7M$978.9M$552.2M
EPS0.230.231.131.460.82
Gross Margin29.7%29.7%44.4%48.8%36.7%
Operating Margin11.1%11.1%29.9%35.6%24.8%
Net Margin7.3%7.3%24.7%30.6%22.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.250.250.240.240.00
Current Ratio3.693.69———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-224.6M$-224.6M$137.1M$142.4M$25.7M
Returns
ROE3.9%3.9%20.3%27.9%19.9%
Valuation
P/E60.5560.5521.5622.5332.97
EV/EBITDA19.9019.9013.9916.9722.20
P/B2.282.284.386.296.58
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-34.8%-34.8%-5.2%36.0%—
EPS Growth-79.9%-79.9%-22.9%78.7%—
Dividend Yield4.8%4.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

73.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.18

Spread vs growth

-153.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

44.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.43

Spread vs growth

-124.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

26.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.30

Spread vs growth

-105.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -31.8%

Total return

-31.8%

Start / end P/E

18.6x → 58.7x

EPS bridge

1.13 → 0.23

Residual

-171.5%

EPS growth-79.9%
Multiple rerating+214.7%
Dividend+4.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-171.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.