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301209.SZ$89.58+6.61%
Fair $89.58+0.0%

301209.SZ

Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsShenzhen

$89.58

+5.67 (+6.61%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $89.58Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $52.3M · quality 76.7/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 69/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 301209.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.0B

P/E

242.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

129.9x

↑

ROE

6.8%

↑

Gross Margin

20.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.10

↓
52-Week Range$90
$68$133

TradingView lightweight chart

301209.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $91.47Periodo +228.4%
Fair value: $89.58

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.9%

FCF CAGR

+20.3%

FCF margin

18.8%

FCF / Net income

1.83x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $512.1M · net income $52.6M · FCF $96.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.1%+2.8% pts

Operating margin

11.5%+0.4% pts

Net margin

10.3%-1.6% pts

FCF margin

18.8%+8.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$512.1M$512.1M$534.6M$428.4M$542.0M
Net Income$52.6M$52.6M$56.4M$33.8M$64.2M
EBITDA$76.1M$76.1M$79.0M$45.8M$73.7M
EPS0.470.470.500.300.69
Gross Margin20.1%20.1%19.1%15.6%17.3%
Operating Margin11.5%11.5%10.6%7.2%11.1%
Net Margin10.3%10.3%10.6%7.9%11.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.100.10———
Current Ratio3.983.98———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$96.1M$96.1M$33.0M$52.3M$55.1M
Returns
ROE6.8%6.8%7.7%4.9%9.6%
Valuation
P/E242.11242.1138.9458.6224.58
EV/EBITDA129.86129.8623.1634.9716.88
P/B13.0513.053.012.882.36
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-4.2%-4.2%24.8%-21.0%—
EPS Growth-6.7%-6.7%66.8%-56.1%—
Dividend Yield0.2%0.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

156.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$7.95

Spread vs growth

-163.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

82.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$9.62

Spread vs growth

-89.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

41.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$15.49

Spread vs growth

-48.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +30.8%

Total return

+30.8%

Start / end P/E

139.0x → 194.6x

EPS bridge

0.50 → 0.47

Residual

-2.7%

EPS growth-6.7%
Multiple rerating+40.0%
Dividend+0.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.