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301518.SZ$31.61+2.73%
Fair $31.61+0.0%

301518.SZ

Changhua Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / ChemicalsShenzhen

$31.61

+0.84 (+2.73%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $31.61Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-313.2M · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 5/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 301518.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Changhua Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.6B

P/E

47.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

29.0x

↑

ROE

6.5%

↑

Gross Margin

7.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.40

↑
52-Week Range$32
$21$53

TradingView lightweight chart

301518.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $31.61Periodo -9.2%
Fair value: $31.61

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-25.2%

FCF / Net income

-7.15x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.76B · net income $97.2M · FCF $-694.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.5%+0.6% pts

Operating margin

3.9%-0.8% pts

Net margin

3.5%-0.3% pts

FCF margin

-25.2%-30.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.76B$2.76B$3.05B$2.71B$2.31B
Net Income$97.2M$97.2M$58.2M$116.1M$89.4M
EBITDA$160.7M$160.7M$115.1M$172.9M$159.8M
EPS0.690.690.410.970.85
Gross Margin7.5%7.5%4.3%8.0%6.9%
Operating Margin3.9%3.9%1.8%5.0%4.7%
Net Margin3.5%3.5%1.9%4.3%3.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.400.400.030.020.09
Current Ratio1.141.14———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-694.8M$-694.8M$-313.2M$11.5M$130.0M
Returns
ROE6.5%6.5%4.1%8.0%17.7%
Valuation
P/E47.1847.1837.0224.54—
EV/EBITDA29.0429.0415.7214.52—
P/B2.982.981.521.97—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-9.7%-9.7%12.5%17.3%—
EPS Growth68.3%68.3%-57.7%14.1%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

59.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.80

Spread vs growth

8.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

37.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.39

Spread vs growth

30.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

23.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.47

Spread vs growth

45.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +10.2%

Total return

+10.2%

Start / end P/E

70.3x → 45.8x

EPS bridge

0.41 → 0.69

Residual

-23.8%

EPS growth+68.3%
Multiple rerating-34.8%
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-23.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.