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301613.SZ$44.57+2.30%
Fair $44.57+0.0%

301613.SZ

Alnera Aluminium Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / AluminumShenzhen

$44.57

+1.00 (+2.30%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $44.57Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-747.2M · quality 52.3/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 301613.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Alnera Aluminium Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.4B

P/E

30.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

18.9x

↑

ROE

14.1%

↑

Gross Margin

17.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.57

↑
52-Week Range$45
$42$64

TradingView lightweight chart

301613.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $44.57Periodo -43.0%
Fair value: $44.57

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+29.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

3.9%

FCF / Net income

0.52x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.06B · net income $230.1M · FCF $120.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.8%-9.4% pts

Operating margin

11.7%-8.3% pts

Net margin

7.5%-4.1% pts

FCF margin

3.9%+74.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.06B$3.06B$1.91B$1.78B$1.42B
Net Income$230.1M$230.1M$192.9M$189.1M$165.4M
EBITDA$382.4M$382.4M$313.6M$362.4M$377.3M
EPS1.601.601.691.751.53
Gross Margin17.8%17.8%23.3%23.5%27.1%
Operating Margin11.7%11.7%16.9%16.8%20.0%
Net Margin7.5%7.5%10.1%10.6%11.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.570.570.811.552.12
Current Ratio1.351.35———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$120.5M$120.5M$-747.2M$-1.10B$-1.01B
Returns
ROE14.1%14.1%12.9%26.4%31.6%
Valuation
P/E30.7430.7421.13——
EV/EBITDA18.9418.9415.51——
P/B3.923.922.72——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth60.6%60.6%7.0%25.4%—
EPS Growth-5.3%-5.3%-3.6%14.3%—
Dividend Yield1.6%1.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

35.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.95

Spread vs growth

-40.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

24.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.79

Spread vs growth

-29.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$7.71

Spread vs growth

-22.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -14.9%

Total return

-14.9%

Start / end P/E

31.6x → 27.9x

EPS bridge

1.69 → 1.60

Residual

+0.6%

EPS growth-5.3%
Multiple rerating-11.8%
Dividend+1.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.