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301618.SZ$40.63+2.14%
Fair $40.63+0.0%

301618.SZ

Dongguan Changlian New Materials Technology Co.,Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsShenzhen

$40.63

+0.85 (+2.14%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $40.63Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-34.8M · quality 44.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 4.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 301618.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Dongguan Changlian New Materials Technology Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.1B

P/E

162.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

53.0x

↑

ROE

4.3%

↑

Gross Margin

28.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.11

↓
52-Week Range$41
$33$49

TradingView lightweight chart

301618.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $40.63Periodo -79.1%
Fair value: $40.63

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-6.1%

FCF / Net income

-0.86x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $568.1M · net income $40.6M · FCF $-34.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

28.6%-4.4% pts

Operating margin

9.1%-8.1% pts

Net margin

7.2%-7.6% pts

FCF margin

-6.1%-17.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$568.1M$568.1M$553.2M$529.9M$538.0M
Net Income$40.6M$40.6M$70.0M$82.5M$79.5M
EBITDA$65.1M$65.1M$98.8M$116.2M$117.8M
EPS0.450.450.961.221.17
Gross Margin28.6%28.6%33.3%34.9%33.0%
Operating Margin9.1%9.1%15.9%18.1%17.3%
Net Margin7.2%7.2%12.7%15.6%14.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.110.110.090.110.13
Current Ratio3.043.04———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-34.8M$-34.8M$-34.8M$12.6M$61.9M
Returns
ROE4.3%4.3%7.5%14.1%15.9%
Valuation
P/E162.52162.5241.41——
EV/EBITDA52.9952.9926.90——
P/B3.893.893.11——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.7%2.7%4.4%-1.5%—
EPS Growth-52.8%-52.8%-21.7%4.1%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

100.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.61

Spread vs growth

-152.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

57.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.36

Spread vs growth

-110.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

31.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$7.03

Spread vs growth

-84.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -1.4%

Total return

-1.4%

Start / end P/E

43.5x → 90.2x

EPS bridge

0.96 → 0.45

Residual

-56.7%

EPS growth-52.8%
Multiple rerating+107.2%
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-56.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.