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3157.T$1402.00-0.70%
Fair $1402.00+0.0%

3157.T

GEOLIVE Group Corporation

Basic Materials / Building MaterialsTokyo

$1402.00

-10.00 (-0.70%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1402.00Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.1B · quality 60.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 45/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 3157.TLocal privado en este navegador · GEOLIVE Group Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$18.6B

P/E

7.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.3x

↓

ROE

6.9%

↑

Gross Margin

13.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.59

↑
52-Week Range$1402
$1076$1727

TradingView lightweight chart

3157.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,409Periodo +414.4%
Fair value: $1,402

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.7%

FCF CAGR

+18.6%

FCF margin

1.2%

FCF / Net income

1.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $176.12B · net income $1.60B · FCF $2.10B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.3%+1.6% pts

Operating margin

1.1%-0.6% pts

Net margin

0.9%-0.4% pts

FCF margin

1.2%+0.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$176.12B$176.12B$166.32B$182.77B$172.63B
Net Income$1.60B$1.60B$2.49B$2.98B$2.29B
EBITDA$3.45B$3.45B$4.24B$4.65B$4.15B
EPS120.64120.64187.57224.44172.79
Gross Margin13.3%13.3%12.3%11.9%11.7%
Operating Margin1.1%1.1%1.3%1.9%1.7%
Net Margin0.9%0.9%1.5%1.6%1.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.590.590.210.250.19
Current Ratio1.141.14———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.10B$2.10B$2.78B$-38.0M$1.26B
Returns
ROE6.9%6.9%11.1%14.5%12.6%
Valuation
P/E7.657.656.994.996.66
EV/EBITDA4.354.351.661.731.87
P/B0.800.800.780.720.84
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.9%5.9%-9.0%5.9%—
EPS Growth-35.7%-35.7%-16.4%29.9%—
Dividend Yield3.5%3.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

1.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$124.40

Spread vs growth

-36.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

4.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$150.53

Spread vs growth

-40.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$242.43

Spread vs growth

-42.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +33.8%

Total return

+33.8%

Start / end P/E

5.8x → 11.7x

EPS bridge

187.57 → 120.64

Residual

-36.6%

EPS growth-35.7%
Multiple rerating+102.5%
Dividend+3.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-36.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.