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3168.T$1444.00+2.19%
Fair $1444.00+0.0%

3168.T

MERF Inc.

Basic Materials / Other Industrial Metals & MiningTokyo

$1444.00

+31.00 (+2.19%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1444.00Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.2B · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 7/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is -2.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3168.TLocal privado en este navegador · MERF Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$20.4B

P/E

12.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

92.0x

↑

ROE

-2.2%

↓

Gross Margin

2.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.43

↑
52-Week Range$1444
$525$1935

TradingView lightweight chart

3168.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,444Periodo +149.4%
Fair value: $1,444

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

1.9%

FCF / Net income

-7.65x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $82.46B · net income $-203.1M · FCF $1.55B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

2.8%-0.1% pts

Operating margin

0.1%-0.8% pts

Net margin

-0.2%-0.9% pts

FCF margin

1.9%+4.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$82.46B$82.46B$82.07B$84.59B$89.10B
Net Income$-203.1M$-203.1M$532.5M$170.3M$547.1M
EBITDA$347.3M$347.3M$1.28B$606.9M$1.15B
EPS-14.37-14.3737.7212.0338.49
Gross Margin2.8%2.8%3.8%2.5%2.9%
Operating Margin0.1%0.1%1.8%0.6%1.0%
Net Margin-0.2%-0.2%0.6%0.2%0.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.431.431.351.391.48
Current Ratio1.811.81———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.55B$1.55B$540.0M$1.25B$-2.30B
Returns
ROE-2.2%-2.2%5.6%1.9%5.9%
Valuation
P/E12.3312.3315.9650.2114.68
EV/EBITDA91.9791.9715.6932.8917.72
P/B2.212.210.900.940.87
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.5%0.5%-3.0%-5.1%—
EPS Growth-138.1%-138.1%213.5%-68.7%—
Dividend Yield1.4%1.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +171.8%

Total return

+171.8%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

37.72 → -14.37

Residual

+170.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+170.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.