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v0.1
3768.HK$0.62-1.59%
Fair $0.62+0.0%

3768.HK

Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co., Ltd.

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated WaterHKSE

$0.62

-0.01 (-1.59%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.62Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $135.2M · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 4/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3768.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$638M

P/E

2.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.7x

↓

ROE

3.6%

↓

Gross Margin

47.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.96

↑
52-Week Range$1
$1$1

TradingView lightweight chart

3768.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.620Periodo -84.0%
Fair value: $0.620

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-10.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-35.6%

FCF / Net income

-2.69x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.48B · net income $196.2M · FCF $-527.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

47.8%+6.3% pts

Operating margin

44.8%+8.7% pts

Net margin

13.3%-2.3% pts

FCF margin

-35.6%-3.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.48B$1.48B$1.59B$1.81B$2.07B
Net Income$196.2M$196.2M$263.2M$316.5M$322.3M
EBITDA$748.9M$748.9M$852.4M$918.9M$852.3M
EPS0.000.000.260.310.31
Gross Margin47.8%47.8%44.8%44.2%41.5%
Operating Margin44.8%44.8%40.5%38.6%36.0%
Net Margin13.3%13.3%16.5%17.5%15.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.960.960.881.061.26
Current Ratio1.331.33———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-527.2M$-527.2M$261.9M$135.2M$-672.0M
Returns
ROE3.6%3.6%5.0%6.4%6.9%
Valuation
P/E2.822.822.421.974.52
EV/EBITDA7.747.746.136.238.42
P/B0.120.120.120.130.31
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.2%-7.2%-11.8%-12.5%—
EPS Growth-99.3%-99.3%-16.1%0.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

207.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.06

Spread vs growth

-306.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

103.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.07

Spread vs growth

-202.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

49.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.11

Spread vs growth

-148.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +5.1%

Total return

+5.1%

Start / end P/E

2.3x → 326.3x

EPS bridge

0.26 → 0.00

Residual

-14175.7%

EPS growth-99.3%
Multiple rerating+14280.0%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-14175.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.