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3863.T$1224.00-2.78%
Fair $1224.00+0.0%

3863.T

Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsTokyo

$1224.00

-35.00 (-2.78%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1224.00Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $72.8B · quality 67.3/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 88/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 0.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3863.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$141.1B

P/E

12.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.3x

↓

ROE

0.9%

↑

Gross Margin

16.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.82

↑
52-Week Range$1224
$987$1612

TradingView lightweight chart

3863.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,224Periodo -15.3%
Fair value: $1,224

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.2%

FCF CAGR

+0.2%

FCF margin

6.2%

FCF / Net income

16.04x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.18T · net income $4.54B · FCF $72.79B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.2%-0.4% pts

Operating margin

1.7%+0.5% pts

Net margin

0.4%+0.2% pts

FCF margin

6.2%-0.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1182.43B$1182.43B$1167.31B$1152.64B$1045.09B
Net Income$4.54B$4.54B$22.75B$-50.41B$1.99B
EBITDA$89.64B$89.64B$106.70B$33.71B$82.71B
EPS39.3339.33197.09-436.2817.23
Gross Margin16.2%16.2%15.5%12.5%16.6%
Operating Margin1.7%1.7%1.5%-2.3%1.2%
Net Margin0.4%0.4%1.9%-4.4%0.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.821.821.882.332.06
Current Ratio1.441.44———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$72.79B$72.79B$90.28B$65.82B$72.38B
Returns
ROE0.9%0.9%4.9%-12.8%0.5%
Valuation
P/E12.0312.035.83—59.26
EV/EBITDA9.269.267.9726.6010.39
P/B0.290.290.280.310.28
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.3%1.3%1.3%10.3%—
EPS Growth-80.0%-80.0%145.2%-2632.1%—
Dividend Yield1.6%1.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

40.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$108.61

Spread vs growth

-120.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

27.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$131.42

Spread vs growth

-107.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$211.65

Spread vs growth

-98.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +20.9%

Total return

+20.9%

Start / end P/E

5.2x → 31.1x

EPS bridge

197.09 → 39.33

Residual

-398.5%

EPS growth-80.0%
Multiple rerating+497.8%
Dividend+1.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-398.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.