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3864.T$1043.00-1.14%
Fair $1043.00+0.0%

3864.T

Mitsubishi Paper Mills Limited

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsTokyo

$1043.00

-12.00 (-1.14%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1043.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 7/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.2B · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 27/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 3864.TLocal privado en este navegador · Mitsubishi Paper Mills Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$45.7B

P/E

24.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.2x

↓

ROE

5.1%

↑

Gross Margin

14.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.85

↑
52-Week Range$1043
$583$1137

TradingView lightweight chart

3864.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,043Periodo -44.8%
Fair value: $1,043

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

1.3%

FCF / Net income

0.51x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $175.94B · net income $4.34B · FCF $2.23B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

14.3%+0.1% pts

Operating margin

2.6%+2.7% pts

Net margin

2.5%+1.9% pts

FCF margin

1.3%+3.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$175.94B$175.94B$193.46B$209.54B$181.92B
Net Income$4.34B$4.34B$4.17B$-571.0M$1.10B
EBITDA$15.60B$15.60B$15.57B$7.86B$10.62B
EPS99.1399.1395.28-12.97—
Gross Margin14.3%14.3%14.5%13.0%14.2%
Operating Margin2.6%2.6%2.8%0.5%-0.1%
Net Margin2.5%2.5%2.2%-0.3%0.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.850.850.941.391.34
Current Ratio1.001.00———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.23B$2.23B$11.80B$-7.27B$-4.56B
Returns
ROE5.1%5.1%4.6%-0.8%1.6%
Valuation
P/E24.0524.056.73——
EV/EBITDA7.167.166.6213.699.22
P/B0.540.540.310.220.20
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-9.1%-9.1%-7.7%15.2%—
EPS Growth4.0%4.0%834.6%——
Dividend Yield2.5%2.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-2.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$92.55

Spread vs growth

6.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

2.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$111.98

Spread vs growth

1.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$180.35

Spread vs growth

-2.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +68.3%

Total return

+68.3%

Start / end P/E

6.6x → 10.5x

EPS bridge

95.28 → 99.13

Residual

+2.4%

EPS growth+4.0%
Multiple rerating+59.4%
Dividend+2.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+2.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.