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3865.T$893.00-1.33%
Fair $893.00+0.0%

3865.T

Hokuetsu Corporation

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsTokyo

$893.00

-12.00 (-1.33%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $893.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 55/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $7.8B · quality 46.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

55/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 3865.TLocal privado en este navegador · Hokuetsu Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$141.8B

P/E

12.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.0x

↓

ROE

5.9%

↑

Gross Margin

22.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.34

↑
52-Week Range$893
$809$1074

TradingView lightweight chart

3865.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $893.00Periodo +44.7%
Fair value: $893.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.3%

FCF CAGR

+50.4%

FCF margin

7.2%

FCF / Net income

1.42x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $305.72B · net income $15.53B · FCF $22.10B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

22.5%-0.9% pts

Operating margin

6.5%-1.4% pts

Net margin

5.1%-3.0% pts

FCF margin

7.2%+4.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$305.72B$305.72B$297.06B$301.20B$261.62B
Net Income$15.53B$15.53B$8.39B$8.32B$21.21B
EBITDA$35.61B$35.61B$19.72B$26.55B$41.10B
EPS92.2692.2649.8449.48126.09
Gross Margin22.5%22.5%20.2%21.3%23.4%
Operating Margin6.5%6.5%5.1%5.7%7.8%
Net Margin5.1%5.1%2.8%2.8%8.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.340.340.420.470.46
Current Ratio2.132.13———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$22.10B$22.10B$7.77B$-11.48B$6.49B
Returns
ROE5.9%5.9%3.3%3.7%9.8%
Valuation
P/E12.9312.9334.5917.685.10
EV/EBITDA5.995.9918.978.824.34
P/B0.570.571.150.650.50
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.9%2.9%-1.4%15.1%—
EPS Growth85.1%85.1%0.7%-60.8%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-4.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$79.24

Spread vs growth

90.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

0.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$95.88

Spread vs growth

84.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$154.41

Spread vs growth

79.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -10.3%

Total return

-10.3%

Start / end P/E

20.6x → 9.7x

EPS bridge

49.84 → 92.26

Residual

-45.2%

EPS growth+85.1%
Multiple rerating-53.1%
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-45.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.