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3868.HK$1.26-0.79%
Fair $1.26+0.0%

3868.HK

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited

Utilities / Utilities - RenewableHKSE

$1.26

-0.01 (-0.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.26Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 58/C
F-Score: 5/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.3B · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

58/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 3868.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.7B

P/E

9.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.6x

↓

ROE

7.6%

↑

Gross Margin

61.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.63

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

3868.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.270Periodo -34.5%
Fair value: $1.260

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.3%

FCF CAGR

-18.4%

FCF margin

26.5%

FCF / Net income

0.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.45B · net income $1.01B · FCF $649.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

61.8%-8.8% pts

Operating margin

60.3%-7.9% pts

Net margin

41.2%-0.8% pts

FCF margin

26.5%-32.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.45B$2.45B$2.44B$2.28B$2.04B
Net Income$1.01B$1.01B$790.9M$898.3M$857.8M
EBITDA$2.37B$2.37B$2.23B$2.11B$1.89B
EPS——0.100.110.12
Gross Margin61.8%61.8%65.6%67.9%70.6%
Operating Margin60.3%60.3%64.1%65.8%68.2%
Net Margin41.2%41.2%32.4%39.4%42.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.630.630.660.530.48
Current Ratio1.951.95———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$649.6M$649.6M$-1.35B$-1.69B$1.19B
Returns
ROE7.6%7.6%6.3%7.4%8.2%
Valuation
P/E9.009.007.9612.0226.20
EV/EBITDA7.637.636.387.9013.72
P/B0.810.810.500.892.14
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.5%0.5%7.0%11.6%—
EPS Growth——-16.2%-3.0%—
Dividend Yield5.7%5.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +36.9%

Total return

+36.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.10 → n/d

Residual

+31.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+5.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+31.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.