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3877.T$1964.00-2.11%
Fair $1964.00+0.0%

3877.T

Chuetsu Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsTokyo

$1964.00

-43.00 (-2.11%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1964.00Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 50/C
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $4.0B · quality 51.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 38/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

50/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 3.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3877.TLocal privado en este navegador · Chuetsu Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$24.7B

P/E

10.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.5x

↓

ROE

3.1%

↑

Gross Margin

15.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.65

↑
52-Week Range$1964
$1519$2087

TradingView lightweight chart

3877.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,992Periodo -17.0%
Fair value: $1,964

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.2%

FCF CAGR

-3.4%

FCF margin

3.6%

FCF / Net income

2.27x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $111.01B · net income $1.76B · FCF $4.00B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

15.4%+0.0% pts

Operating margin

4.4%+1.8% pts

Net margin

1.6%+0.2% pts

FCF margin

3.6%-1.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$111.01B$111.01B$107.83B$105.67B$90.10B
Net Income$1.76B$1.76B$3.70B$3.05B$1.27B
EBITDA$8.29B$8.29B$11.19B$9.19B$8.26B
EPS136.66136.66285.85229.0695.02
Gross Margin15.4%15.4%16.3%13.8%15.4%
Operating Margin4.4%4.4%5.7%2.5%2.6%
Net Margin1.6%1.6%3.4%2.9%1.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.650.650.750.850.98
Current Ratio1.211.21———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$4.00B$4.00B$5.53B$-3.32B$4.44B
Returns
ROE3.1%3.1%6.7%5.9%2.6%
Valuation
P/E10.1010.106.354.449.86
EV/EBITDA6.456.454.875.385.51
P/B0.440.440.420.260.26
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.0%3.0%2.0%17.3%—
EPS Growth-52.2%-52.2%24.8%141.1%—
Dividend Yield6.0%6.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

8.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$174.27

Spread vs growth

-60.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

9.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$210.87

Spread vs growth

-61.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$339.61

Spread vs growth

-61.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +37.1%

Total return

+37.1%

Start / end P/E

5.3x → 14.6x

EPS bridge

285.85 → 136.66

Residual

-90.9%

EPS growth-52.2%
Multiple rerating+174.1%
Dividend+6.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-90.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.