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3878.T$809.00-4.71%
Fair $809.00+0.0%

3878.T

Tomoegawa Corporation

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsTokyo

$809.00

-40.00 (-4.71%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $809.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 7/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $116.0M · quality 41.7/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 27/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 4.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3878.TLocal privado en este navegador · Tomoegawa Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.9B

P/E

8.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.1x

↓

ROE

4.9%

↑

Gross Margin

23.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.91

↑
52-Week Range$809
$598$950

TradingView lightweight chart

3878.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $809.00Periodo -49.8%
Fair value: $809.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.9%

FCF / Net income

-1.32x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $34.43B · net income $749.0M · FCF $-989.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.2%+2.6% pts

Operating margin

3.7%-2.3% pts

Net margin

2.2%-2.9% pts

FCF margin

-2.9%-10.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$34.43B$34.43B$33.69B$34.17B$32.78B
Net Income$749.0M$749.0M$594.0M$1.45B$1.65B
EBITDA$3.41B$3.41B$3.24B$4.19B$4.42B
EPS73.0573.0557.28135.11152.71
Gross Margin23.2%23.2%21.9%22.0%20.6%
Operating Margin3.7%3.7%4.0%6.0%6.1%
Net Margin2.2%2.2%1.8%4.2%5.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.910.910.860.890.93
Current Ratio1.081.08———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-989.0M$-989.0M$2.33B$116.0M$2.44B
Returns
ROE4.9%4.9%4.0%10.3%12.2%
Valuation
P/E8.488.4815.694.865.25
EV/EBITDA5.075.075.123.583.57
P/B0.540.540.630.490.60
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.2%2.2%-1.4%4.2%—
EPS Growth27.5%27.5%-57.6%-11.5%—
Dividend Yield3.5%3.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$71.79

Spread vs growth

28.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

3.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$86.86

Spread vs growth

24.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$139.89

Spread vs growth

20.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +38.8%

Total return

+38.8%

Start / end P/E

10.4x → 11.1x

EPS bridge

57.28 → 73.05

Residual

+1.7%

EPS growth+27.5%
Multiple rerating+6.1%
Dividend+3.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+1.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.