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3896.T$402.00-1.95%
Fair $402.00+0.0%

3896.T

Awa Paper & Technological Company, Inc.

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsTokyo

$402.00

-8.00 (-1.95%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $402.00Fund rank 18/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 4/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 35% · confianza 10%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-3.0B · quality 19.7/100

Data gap 18/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 4/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.34, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is 0.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3896.TLocal privado en este navegador · Awa Paper & Technological Company, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.0B

P/E

5.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

15.6x

↑

ROE

0.7%

↑

Gross Margin

16.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

2.34

↑
52-Week Range$402
$320$579

TradingView lightweight chart

3896.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $402.00Periodo +20.7%
Fair value: $402.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-29.3%

FCF / Net income

-139.68x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $17.12B · net income $35.9M · FCF $-5.01B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.0%-1.4% pts

Operating margin

2.5%+0.7% pts

Net margin

0.2%-1.7% pts

FCF margin

-29.3%-37.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$17.12B$17.12B$16.12B$17.31B$15.02B
Net Income$35.9M$35.9M$52.5M$242.7M$282.8M
EBITDA$1.00B$1.00B$1.08B$743.5M$1.08B
EPS3.563.565.2024.1228.11
Gross Margin16.0%16.0%15.9%15.8%17.4%
Operating Margin2.5%2.5%2.2%2.2%1.8%
Net Margin0.2%0.2%0.3%1.4%1.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.342.341.510.830.97
Current Ratio1.181.18———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-5.01B$-5.01B$-2.97B$85.9M$1.29B
Returns
ROE0.7%0.7%1.0%4.9%6.2%
Valuation
P/E5.385.3895.3825.7011.67
EV/EBITDA15.6315.6310.8013.206.65
P/B0.750.750.971.260.73
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth6.3%6.3%-6.9%15.2%—
EPS Growth-31.5%-31.5%-78.4%-14.2%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

115.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$35.67

Spread vs growth

-147.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

64.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$43.16

Spread vs growth

-96.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

34.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$69.51

Spread vs growth

-66.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +2.3%

Total return

+2.3%

Start / end P/E

75.6x → 112.9x

EPS bridge

5.20 → 3.56

Residual

-15.6%

EPS growth-31.5%
Multiple rerating+49.4%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-15.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.