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4040.T$4010.00-2.79%
Fair $4010.00+0.0%

4040.T

Nankai Chemical Company,Limited

Basic Materials / ChemicalsTokyo

$4010.00

-115.00 (-2.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4010.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 54/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $131.0M · quality 44.3/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 20/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

54/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4040.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nankai Chemical Company,Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.0B

P/E

2.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.7x

↓

ROE

12.1%

↑

Gross Margin

26.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.67

↑
52-Week Range$4010
$2605$4275

TradingView lightweight chart

4040.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4,010Periodo +32.1%
Fair value: $4,010

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-8.9%

FCF / Net income

-1.83x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $20.90B · net income $1.01B · FCF $-1.86B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

26.4%+2.7% pts

Operating margin

6.2%+2.6% pts

Net margin

4.9%+2.2% pts

FCF margin

-8.9%-11.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$20.90B$20.90B$19.99B$19.60B$17.43B
Net Income$1.01B$1.01B$1.16B$504.0M$462.0M
EBITDA$2.55B$2.55B$2.73B$1.71B$1.48B
EPS502.64502.64575.01391.90359.83
Gross Margin26.4%26.4%27.5%23.0%23.7%
Operating Margin6.2%6.2%7.8%4.1%3.6%
Net Margin4.9%4.9%5.8%2.6%2.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.670.670.701.181.60
Current Ratio1.961.96———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.86B$-1.86B$570.0M$131.0M$383.0M
Returns
ROE12.1%12.1%15.6%9.8%10.0%
Valuation
P/E2.942.947.83——
EV/EBITDA4.724.724.61——
P/B0.960.961.22——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth4.6%4.6%2.0%12.4%—
EPS Growth-12.6%-12.6%46.7%8.9%—
Dividend Yield1.6%1.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-10.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$355.82

Spread vs growth

-1.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-3.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$430.54

Spread vs growth

-9.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

3.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$693.39

Spread vs growth

-15.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +19.3%

Total return

+19.3%

Start / end P/E

5.9x → 8.0x

EPS bridge

575.01 → 502.64

Residual

-4.4%

EPS growth-12.6%
Multiple rerating+34.7%
Dividend+1.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.