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4041.T$3545.00-2.06%
Fair $3545.00+0.0%

4041.T

Nippon Soda Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / ChemicalsTokyo

$3545.00

-75.00 (-2.06%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3545.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $3.0B · quality 46.7/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4041.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nippon Soda Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$190.0B

P/E

10.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.8x

↓

ROE

8.0%

↑

Gross Margin

29.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.27

↑
52-Week Range$3545
$2800$4200

TradingView lightweight chart

4041.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3,570Periodo +580.0%
Fair value: $3,545

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.6%

FCF CAGR

+10.9%

FCF margin

2.2%

FCF / Net income

0.23x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $155.20B · net income $15.01B · FCF $3.48B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.0%+1.3% pts

Operating margin

10.3%+2.5% pts

Net margin

9.7%+1.4% pts

FCF margin

2.2%+0.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$155.20B$155.20B$154.43B$172.81B$152.54B
Net Income$15.01B$15.01B$16.61B$16.69B$12.68B
EBITDA$28.55B$28.55B$29.49B$33.62B$26.34B
EPS272.56272.56298.71299.39—
Gross Margin29.0%29.0%27.6%28.5%27.6%
Operating Margin10.3%10.3%9.0%9.8%7.8%
Net Margin9.7%9.7%10.8%9.7%8.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.270.270.260.190.25
Current Ratio2.572.57———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$3.48B$3.48B$-5.69B$3.00B$2.56B
Returns
ROE8.0%8.0%8.8%9.9%8.1%
Valuation
P/E10.5310.539.947.54—
EV/EBITDA7.827.826.514.154.28
P/B1.051.050.880.740.59
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.5%0.5%-10.6%13.3%—
EPS Growth-8.8%-8.8%-0.2%——
Dividend Yield4.5%4.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

4.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$314.56

Spread vs growth

-13.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

6.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$380.62

Spread vs growth

-15.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$612.99

Spread vs growth

-17.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +31.6%

Total return

+31.6%

Start / end P/E

9.4x → 13.1x

EPS bridge

298.71 → 272.56

Residual

-3.4%

EPS growth-8.8%
Multiple rerating+39.3%
Dividend+4.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.