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4046.T$1854.00-1.38%
Fair $1854.00+0.0%

4046.T

Osaka Soda Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$1854.00

-26.00 (-1.38%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1854.00Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 63/B
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $4.2B · quality 70.7/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 63/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

63/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4046.TLocal privado en este navegador · Osaka Soda Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$227.8B

P/E

15.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

12.1x

↑

ROE

8.9%

↑

Gross Margin

30.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.07

↓
52-Week Range$1854
$1445$2534

TradingView lightweight chart

4046.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,854Periodo +924.3%
Fair value: $1,854

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.1%

FCF CAGR

+7.5%

FCF margin

9.8%

FCF / Net income

0.92x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $96.43B · net income $10.33B · FCF $9.49B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.0%+0.4% pts

Operating margin

13.7%-0.3% pts

Net margin

10.7%-0.0% pts

FCF margin

9.8%+1.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$96.43B$96.43B$94.56B$104.21B$88.08B
Net Income$10.33B$10.33B$7.65B$10.57B$9.44B
EBITDA$18.74B$18.74B$15.23B$19.86B$17.41B
EPS81.5481.5460.1785.6972.71
Gross Margin30.0%30.0%26.2%29.2%29.6%
Operating Margin13.7%13.7%11.1%14.9%14.1%
Net Margin10.7%10.7%8.1%10.1%10.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.070.070.080.090.20
Current Ratio3.063.06———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$9.49B$9.49B$3.23B$4.25B$7.63B
Returns
ROE8.9%8.9%7.0%10.6%11.3%
Valuation
P/E15.1715.1730.5510.368.61
EV/EBITDA12.1112.1114.955.304.69
P/B2.032.032.131.100.97
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.0%2.0%-9.3%18.3%—
EPS Growth35.5%35.5%-29.8%17.9%—
Dividend Yield1.5%1.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

26.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$164.51

Spread vs growth

9.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

19.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$199.06

Spread vs growth

16.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$320.59

Spread vs growth

20.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +25.8%

Total return

+25.8%

Start / end P/E

24.8x → 22.7x

EPS bridge

60.17 → 81.54

Residual

-2.9%

EPS growth+35.5%
Multiple rerating-8.2%
Dividend+1.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.