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4064.T$3205.00-1.69%
Fair $3205.00+0.0%

4064.T

Nippon Carbide Industries Co., Inc.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$3205.00

-55.00 (-1.69%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3205.00Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 73/B
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.4B · quality 80.7/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 74/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

73/100

B

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4064.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nippon Carbide Industries Co., Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$29.9B

P/E

11.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.6x

↓

ROE

6.2%

↑

Gross Margin

32.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.27

↑
52-Week Range$3205
$1663$3300

TradingView lightweight chart

4064.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3,205Periodo +230.4%
Fair value: $3,205

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.2%

FCF CAGR

+21.0%

FCF margin

6.4%

FCF / Net income

1.41x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $48.73B · net income $2.21B · FCF $3.11B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

32.0%+1.9% pts

Operating margin

7.2%+0.4% pts

Net margin

4.5%+0.4% pts

FCF margin

6.4%+2.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$48.73B$48.73B$43.23B$44.01B$47.00B
Net Income$2.21B$2.21B$999.0M$332.0M$1.93B
EBITDA$5.47B$5.47B$3.88B$3.29B$4.81B
EPS237.50237.50106.4235.37211.10
Gross Margin32.0%32.0%28.2%28.7%30.1%
Operating Margin7.2%7.2%2.0%2.9%6.8%
Net Margin4.5%4.5%2.3%0.8%4.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.270.270.340.370.46
Current Ratio3.223.22———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$3.11B$3.11B$2.43B$1.46B$1.76B
Returns
ROE6.2%6.2%3.1%1.1%6.4%
Valuation
P/E11.4611.4616.6536.506.36
EV/EBITDA4.564.563.703.853.09
P/B0.840.840.510.390.41
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth12.7%12.7%-1.8%-6.4%—
EPS Growth123.2%123.2%200.9%-83.2%—
Dividend Yield4.1%4.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

6.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$284.39

Spread vs growth

117.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

7.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$344.11

Spread vs growth

115.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$554.20

Spread vs growth

114.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +92.4%

Total return

+92.4%

Start / end P/E

16.0x → 13.5x

EPS bridge

106.42 → 237.50

Residual

-19.2%

EPS growth+123.2%
Multiple rerating-15.6%
Dividend+4.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.