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4112.T$2235.00-7.34%
Fair $2235.00+0.0%

4112.T

Hodogaya Chemical Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$2235.00

-177.00 (-7.34%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2235.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 61/B
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $248.0M · quality 50.7/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

61/100

B

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4112.TLocal privado en este navegador · Hodogaya Chemical Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$35.6B

P/E

11.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.2x

↓

ROE

6.5%

↑

Gross Margin

39.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.18

↓
52-Week Range$2235
$1400$2647

TradingView lightweight chart

4112.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,235Periodo +194.1%
Fair value: $2,235

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.1%

FCF CAGR

-61.6%

FCF margin

0.5%

FCF / Net income

0.08x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $48.58B · net income $3.18B · FCF $248.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

39.5%-2.6% pts

Operating margin

10.1%-5.3% pts

Net margin

6.5%-1.2% pts

FCF margin

0.5%-10.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$48.58B$48.58B$44.26B$43.32B$41.88B
Net Income$3.18B$3.18B$2.48B$2.22B$3.25B
EBITDA$7.93B$7.93B$7.17B$6.26B$7.94B
EPS200.04200.04156.32140.32205.34
Gross Margin39.5%39.5%38.6%38.5%42.2%
Operating Margin10.1%10.1%8.9%8.6%15.3%
Net Margin6.5%6.5%5.6%5.1%7.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.180.180.210.260.17
Current Ratio2.732.73———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$248.0M$248.0M$2.99B$-2.06B$4.38B
Returns
ROE6.5%6.5%5.2%5.2%7.8%
Valuation
P/E11.6411.6412.4310.509.63
EV/EBITDA4.234.233.863.823.45
P/B0.730.730.650.550.76
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth9.8%9.8%2.2%3.5%—
EPS Growth28.0%28.0%11.4%-31.7%—
Dividend Yield2.7%2.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$198.32

Spread vs growth

28.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

3.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$239.97

Spread vs growth

24.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$386.47

Spread vs growth

21.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +55.8%

Total return

+55.8%

Start / end P/E

9.3x → 11.2x

EPS bridge

156.32 → 200.04

Residual

+5.5%

EPS growth+28.0%
Multiple rerating+19.6%
Dividend+2.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+5.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.