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4247.T$1255.00-1.10%
Fair $1255.00+0.0%

4247.T

POVAL KOGYO Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$1255.00

-14.00 (-1.10%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1255.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 3/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-31.6M · quality 44.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 1.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4247.TLocal privado en este navegador · POVAL KOGYO Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.3B

P/E

8.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

8.7x

↓

ROE

1.4%

↑

Gross Margin

35.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.04

↓
52-Week Range$1255
$1159$1620

TradingView lightweight chart

4247.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,255Periodo +8.2%
Fair value: $1,255

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.39x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.38B · net income $80.5M · FCF $-31.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

35.1%-1.9% pts

Operating margin

7.1%-3.6% pts

Net margin

2.4%-5.7% pts

FCF margin

-0.9%-5.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.38B$3.38B$3.59B$3.57B$3.48B
Net Income$80.5M$80.5M$185.7M$256.2M$279.8M
EBITDA$287.1M$287.1M$422.7M$537.0M$513.1M
EPS30.5630.5670.4897.23106.22
Gross Margin35.1%35.1%35.2%36.6%37.0%
Operating Margin7.1%7.1%8.9%10.3%10.7%
Net Margin2.4%2.4%5.2%7.2%8.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.040.040.000.000.00
Current Ratio3.343.34———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-31.6M$-31.6M$-326.6M$43.4M$160.8M
Returns
ROE1.4%1.4%3.3%4.6%5.2%
Valuation
P/E8.878.8717.5211.6310.32
EV/EBITDA8.718.715.773.323.26
P/B0.580.580.570.540.54
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.9%-5.9%0.7%2.6%—
EPS Growth-56.6%-56.6%-27.5%-8.5%—
Dividend Yield3.3%3.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

53.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$111.36

Spread vs growth

-110.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

34.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$134.75

Spread vs growth

-91.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

21.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$217.01

Spread vs growth

-78.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +11.1%

Total return

+11.1%

Start / end P/E

16.5x → 41.1x

EPS bridge

70.48 → 30.56

Residual

-84.2%

EPS growth-56.6%
Multiple rerating+148.7%
Dividend+3.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-84.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.