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4406.T$219.00+6.31%
Fair $219.00+0.0%

4406.T

New Japan Chemical Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$219.00

+13.00 (+6.31%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $219.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-593.0M · quality 43.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 2.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4406.TLocal privado en este navegador · New Japan Chemical Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.2B

P/E

13.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.9x

↓

ROE

2.9%

↑

Gross Margin

16.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.40

↑
52-Week Range$219
$183$299

TradingView lightweight chart

4406.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $219.00Periodo -64.0%
Fair value: $219.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.7%

FCF / Net income

-1.71x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $32.70B · net income $522.0M · FCF $-893.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.7%-1.5% pts

Operating margin

2.5%-1.2% pts

Net margin

1.6%-0.9% pts

FCF margin

-2.7%-0.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$32.70B$32.70B$32.86B$33.10B$32.36B
Net Income$522.0M$522.0M$220.0M$-444.0M$811.0M
EBITDA$1.56B$1.56B$1.31B$531.0M$1.74B
EPS14.0014.005.92-11.9221.76
Gross Margin16.7%16.7%16.2%13.3%18.2%
Operating Margin2.5%2.5%1.1%-1.3%3.7%
Net Margin1.6%1.6%0.7%-1.3%2.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.400.400.440.640.62
Current Ratio1.951.95———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-893.0M$-893.0M$2.80B$-593.0M$-705.0M
Returns
ROE2.9%2.9%1.3%-2.8%5.1%
Valuation
P/E13.6613.6630.74—10.62
EV/EBITDA7.917.918.0628.458.66
P/B0.460.460.390.500.54
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.5%-0.5%-0.7%2.3%—
EPS Growth136.5%136.5%149.7%-154.8%—
Dividend Yield2.2%2.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

11.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$19.43

Spread vs growth

124.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

10.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$23.51

Spread vs growth

125.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$37.87

Spread vs growth

126.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +19.9%

Total return

+19.9%

Start / end P/E

31.4x → 15.6x

EPS bridge

5.92 → 14.00

Residual

-68.5%

EPS growth+136.5%
Multiple rerating-50.2%
Dividend+2.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-68.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.