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4409.T$721.00+0.00%
Fair $721.00+0.0%

4409.T

Toho Chemical Industry Company, Limited

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$721.00

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $721.00Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $393.0M · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4409.TLocal privado en este navegador · Toho Chemical Industry Company, Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$15.2B

P/E

9.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.3x

↓

ROE

7.4%

↑

Gross Margin

15.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.36

↑
52-Week Range$721
$704$835

TradingView lightweight chart

4409.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $721.00Periodo +309.7%
Fair value: $721.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.7%

FCF / Net income

0.25x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $53.61B · net income $1.54B · FCF $393.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

15.2%+0.8% pts

Operating margin

3.4%+0.7% pts

Net margin

2.9%+0.1% pts

FCF margin

0.7%+10.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$53.61B$53.61B$50.60B$55.36B$49.89B
Net Income$1.54B$1.54B$546.0M$977.0M$1.40B
EBITDA$5.20B$5.20B$4.00B$4.50B$4.57B
EPS73.4273.4225.9946.3165.43
Gross Margin15.2%15.2%13.5%13.2%14.5%
Operating Margin3.4%3.4%1.5%2.5%2.7%
Net Margin2.9%2.9%1.1%1.8%2.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.361.361.591.691.68
Current Ratio1.531.53———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$393.0M$393.0M$1.40B$-3.15B$-5.03B
Returns
ROE7.4%7.4%2.9%5.5%8.3%
Valuation
P/E9.929.9219.5810.457.79
EV/EBITDA7.287.288.557.576.91
P/B0.720.720.560.580.65
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth6.0%6.0%-8.6%11.0%—
EPS Growth182.5%182.5%-43.9%-29.2%—
Dividend Yield6.1%6.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-4.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$63.98

Spread vs growth

187.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

1.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$77.41

Spread vs growth

181.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$124.67

Spread vs growth

177.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +5.5%

Total return

+5.5%

Start / end P/E

27.9x → 9.8x

EPS bridge

25.99 → 73.42

Residual

-118.2%

EPS growth+182.5%
Multiple rerating-64.8%
Dividend+6.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-118.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.