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4463.T$1797.00+2.33%
Fair $1797.00+0.0%

4463.T

Nicca Chemical Co.,Ltd.

Basic Materials / ChemicalsTokyo

$1797.00

+41.00 (+2.33%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1797.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.4B · quality 46.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 23/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4463.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nicca Chemical Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$28.6B

P/E

12.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.6x

↓

ROE

6.8%

↑

Gross Margin

36.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.53

↑
52-Week Range$1797
$1227$1921

TradingView lightweight chart

4463.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,797Periodo +19.2%
Fair value: $1,797

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-11.4%

FCF / Net income

-2.67x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $55.70B · net income $2.38B · FCF $-6.37B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

36.3%+4.3% pts

Operating margin

6.9%+1.7% pts

Net margin

4.3%+0.1% pts

FCF margin

-11.4%-13.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$55.70B$55.70B$54.10B$50.17B$50.63B
Net Income$2.38B$2.38B$2.75B$1.69B$2.11B
EBITDA$6.25B$6.25B$6.17B$4.83B$5.72B
EPS150.28150.28174.17107.09134.08
Gross Margin36.3%36.3%35.7%32.9%31.9%
Operating Margin6.9%6.9%6.5%4.1%5.2%
Net Margin4.3%4.3%5.1%3.4%4.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.530.530.290.310.37
Current Ratio1.441.44———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-6.37B$-6.37B$2.41B$2.94B$970.0M
Returns
ROE6.8%6.8%8.2%5.6%7.6%
Valuation
P/E11.9611.966.528.816.02
EV/EBITDA5.635.632.783.282.80
P/B0.810.810.530.490.46
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.0%3.0%7.8%-0.9%—
EPS Growth-13.7%-13.7%62.6%-20.1%—
Dividend Yield3.9%3.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

2.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$159.45

Spread vs growth

-15.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

5.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$192.94

Spread vs growth

-18.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$310.73

Spread vs growth

-21.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +42.9%

Total return

+42.9%

Start / end P/E

7.4x → 12.0x

EPS bridge

174.17 → 150.28

Residual

-8.4%

EPS growth-13.7%
Multiple rerating+61.1%
Dividend+3.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-8.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.