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4464.T$3540.00-1.24%
Fair $3540.00+0.0%

4464.T

SOFT99corporation

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$3540.00

-45.00 (-1.24%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3540.00Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 55/C
F-Score: 7/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.7B · quality 70.3/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 59/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

55/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 4464.TLocal privado en este navegador · SOFT99corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$76.4B

P/E

25.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.4x

↓

ROE

5.2%

↑

Gross Margin

38.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$3540
$1568$4190

TradingView lightweight chart

4464.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3,595Periodo +255.9%
Fair value: $3,540

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.5%

FCF CAGR

+16.5%

FCF margin

9.1%

FCF / Net income

0.93x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $29.74B · net income $2.91B · FCF $2.72B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

38.1%-0.4% pts

Operating margin

13.6%+0.3% pts

Net margin

9.8%+0.1% pts

FCF margin

9.1%+3.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$29.74B$29.74B$29.87B$30.17B$28.44B
Net Income$2.91B$2.91B$2.63B$2.06B$2.76B
EBITDA$5.19B$5.19B$4.79B$4.03B$4.86B
EPS135.18135.18121.4195.11126.38
Gross Margin38.1%38.1%35.7%35.2%38.5%
Operating Margin13.6%13.6%12.0%10.8%13.2%
Net Margin9.8%9.8%8.8%6.8%9.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.01—
Current Ratio7.347.34———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.72B$2.72B$2.67B$422.0M$1.72B
Returns
ROE5.2%5.2%4.8%3.9%5.4%
Valuation
P/E25.7125.7112.0713.359.36
EV/EBITDA10.4210.422.191.921.15
P/B1.351.350.580.520.50
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.4%-0.4%-1.0%6.1%—
EPS Growth11.3%11.3%27.7%-24.7%—
Dividend Yield1.9%1.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

32.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$314.12

Spread vs growth

-21.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

23.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$380.08

Spread vs growth

-11.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$612.12

Spread vs growth

-5.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +126.2%

Total return

+126.2%

Start / end P/E

13.2x → 26.6x

EPS bridge

121.41 → 135.18

Residual

+11.5%

EPS growth+11.3%
Multiple rerating+101.4%
Dividend+1.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+11.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.