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4616.T$1807.00-0.11%
Fair $1807.00+0.0%

4616.T

Kawakami Paint Mfg.Co.,Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$1807.00

-2.00 (-0.11%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1807.00Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-78.9M · quality 40.0/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 2.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4616.TLocal privado en este navegador · Kawakami Paint Mfg.Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.8B

P/E

24.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

6.7x

↓

ROE

2.2%

↑

Gross Margin

17.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.57

↑
52-Week Range$1807
$1621$2600

TradingView lightweight chart

4616.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,807Periodo +39.0%
Fair value: $1,807

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.7%

FCF CAGR

-64.8%

FCF margin

0.1%

FCF / Net income

0.08x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.93B · net income $72.3M · FCF $6.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.0%-2.2% pts

Operating margin

0.9%-1.9% pts

Net margin

1.2%-1.7% pts

FCF margin

0.1%-2.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.93B$5.93B$5.91B$6.14B$5.63B
Net Income$72.3M$72.3M$170.6M$203.0M$162.2M
EBITDA$270.6M$270.6M$375.2M$362.1M$344.0M
EPS72.6572.65171.34203.89162.91
Gross Margin17.0%17.0%17.7%17.9%19.2%
Operating Margin0.9%0.9%1.6%3.1%2.9%
Net Margin1.2%1.2%2.9%3.3%2.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.570.570.590.610.70
Current Ratio1.571.57———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$6.1M$6.1M$-125.6M$-78.9M$139.4M
Returns
ROE2.2%2.2%5.3%6.6%6.0%
Valuation
P/E24.8824.888.897.1013.20
EV/EBITDA6.716.714.023.855.79
P/B0.540.540.470.470.79
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.3%0.3%-3.7%9.1%—
EPS Growth-57.6%-57.6%-16.0%25.2%—
Dividend Yield2.5%2.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

30.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$160.34

Spread vs growth

-87.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

21.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$194.01

Spread vs growth

-79.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$312.46

Spread vs growth

-73.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +9.1%

Total return

+9.1%

Start / end P/E

9.9x → 24.9x

EPS bridge

171.34 → 72.65

Residual

-87.2%

EPS growth-57.6%
Multiple rerating+151.4%
Dividend+2.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-87.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.