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4627.T$1800.00-3.02%
Fair $1800.00+0.0%

4627.T

Natoco Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$1800.00

-56.00 (-3.02%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1800.00Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.9B · quality 35.3/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 11/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 4.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4627.TLocal privado en este navegador · Natoco Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$13.6B

P/E

11.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

1.3x

↓

ROE

4.7%

↑

Gross Margin

22.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$1800
$1360$2018

TradingView lightweight chart

4627.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,800Periodo +100.2%
Fair value: $1,800

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

3.7%

FCF / Net income

0.73x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $22.28B · net income $1.14B · FCF $835.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

22.3%-1.6% pts

Operating margin

6.3%-2.1% pts

Net margin

5.1%-2.3% pts

FCF margin

3.7%+19.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$22.28B$22.28B$20.75B$20.16B$20.45B
Net Income$1.14B$1.14B$956.0M$951.2M$1.51B
EBITDA$2.30B$2.30B$2.20B$2.10B$2.84B
EPS——126.60126.01200.70
Gross Margin22.3%22.3%21.9%22.2%23.9%
Operating Margin6.3%6.3%5.9%6.2%8.4%
Net Margin5.1%5.1%4.6%4.7%7.4%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio3.373.37———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$835.0M$835.0M$-1.94B$-3.14B$-3.28B
Returns
ROE4.7%4.7%4.1%4.2%6.9%
Valuation
P/E11.9411.9410.7611.347.99
EV/EBITDA1.261.260.061.011.44
P/B0.560.560.440.470.55
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.3%7.3%2.9%-1.4%—
EPS Growth——0.5%-37.2%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +27.6%

Total return

+27.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

126.60 → n/d

Residual

+24.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+24.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.