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4968.T$1450.00-2.36%
Fair $1450.00+0.0%

4968.T

Arakawa Chemical Industries, Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$1450.00

-35.00 (-2.36%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1450.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 8/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-5.7B · quality 56.7/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 30/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 4.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4968.TLocal privado en este navegador · Arakawa Chemical Industries, Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$28.8B

P/E

13.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.6x

↓

ROE

4.5%

↑

Gross Margin

20.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.68

↑
52-Week Range$1450
$1003$1558

TradingView lightweight chart

4968.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,450Periodo +141.7%
Fair value: $1,450

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.8%

FCF / Net income

0.23x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $80.24B · net income $2.64B · FCF $602.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.6%-1.8% pts

Operating margin

1.3%-2.8% pts

Net margin

3.3%+1.4% pts

FCF margin

0.8%+3.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$80.24B$80.24B$72.22B$79.43B$80.52B
Net Income$2.64B$2.64B$-1.04B$-4.94B$1.50B
EBITDA$8.98B$8.98B$4.72B$49.0M$6.29B
EPS133.31133.31-52.56-249.0875.75
Gross Margin20.6%20.6%16.2%14.6%22.3%
Operating Margin1.3%1.3%-3.6%-3.7%4.1%
Net Margin3.3%3.3%-1.4%-6.2%1.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.680.680.760.650.45
Current Ratio1.411.41———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$602.0M$602.0M$-5.70B$-6.69B$-2.43B
Returns
ROE4.5%4.5%-1.9%-9.1%2.5%
Valuation
P/E13.0713.07——13.53
EV/EBITDA6.556.5511.31887.635.83
P/B0.490.490.400.360.34
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.1%11.1%-9.1%-1.3%—
EPS Growth353.6%353.6%78.9%-428.8%—
Dividend Yield3.6%3.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-1.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$128.66

Spread vs growth

354.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

3.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$155.68

Spread vs growth

350.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$250.73

Spread vs growth

347.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +33.5%

Total return

+33.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-52.56 → 133.31

Residual

+29.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+3.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+29.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.