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4970.T$16400.00-0.66%
Fair $16400.00+0.0%

4970.T

Toyo Gosei Co.,Ltd.

Basic Materials / ChemicalsTokyo

$16400.00

-110.00 (-0.66%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $16400.00Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-3.0B · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 8/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4970.TLocal privado en este navegador · Toyo Gosei Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$130.2B

P/E

48.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.0x

↑

ROE

13.2%

↑

Gross Margin

23.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.17

↑
52-Week Range$16400
$4340$19310

TradingView lightweight chart

4970.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $16,580Periodo +716.7%
Fair value: $16,400

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-13.4%

FCF / Net income

-1.58x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $38.66B · net income $3.28B · FCF $-5.18B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.4%-1.9% pts

Operating margin

10.6%-3.3% pts

Net margin

8.5%-2.0% pts

FCF margin

-13.4%-20.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$38.66B$38.66B$31.96B$34.16B$33.14B
Net Income$3.28B$3.28B$2.40B$3.83B$3.46B
EBITDA$7.79B$7.79B$6.29B$7.96B$7.44B
EPS413.20413.20301.98482.21435.61
Gross Margin23.4%23.4%23.8%26.4%25.3%
Operating Margin10.6%10.6%11.0%14.5%14.0%
Net Margin8.5%8.5%7.5%11.2%10.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.171.171.050.941.16
Current Ratio0.780.78———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-5.18B$-5.18B$-3.02B$-29.0M$2.39B
Returns
ROE13.2%13.2%11.0%19.5%21.5%
Valuation
P/E48.2548.2528.8117.5425.34
EV/EBITDA19.9819.9814.0510.3513.78
P/B5.245.243.163.425.46
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth21.0%21.0%-6.4%3.1%—
EPS Growth36.8%36.8%-37.4%10.7%—
Dividend Yield0.3%0.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

52.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1455.23

Spread vs growth

-15.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

33.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1760.82

Spread vs growth

3.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

21.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2835.83

Spread vs growth

15.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +258.4%

Total return

+258.4%

Start / end P/E

15.3x → 40.1x

EPS bridge

301.98 → 413.20

Residual

+59.6%

EPS growth+36.8%
Multiple rerating+161.7%
Dividend+0.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+59.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.