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4976.T$1298.00-1.07%
Fair $1298.00+0.0%

4976.T

Toyo Drilube Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$1298.00

-14.00 (-1.07%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1298.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $190.8M · quality 50.0/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4976.TLocal privado en este navegador · Toyo Drilube Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.2B

P/E

8.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

1.1x

↓

ROE

6.4%

↑

Gross Margin

37.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.08

↓
52-Week Range$1298
$1160$1640

TradingView lightweight chart

4976.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,298Periodo +141.7%
Fair value: $1,298

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-9.7%

FCF CAGR

+4.6%

FCF margin

11.0%

FCF / Net income

0.84x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.70B · net income $617.3M · FCF $517.9M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

37.8%+15.8% pts

Operating margin

13.9%+6.8% pts

Net margin

13.1%+6.0% pts

FCF margin

11.0%+3.9% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$4.70B$4.70B$3.87B$3.67B$6.38B
Net Income$617.3M$617.3M$332.6M$576.0M$453.0M
EBITDA$1.19B$1.19B$730.2M$965.1M$887.2M
EPS155.41155.4183.73145.01—
Gross Margin37.8%37.8%35.3%38.4%22.0%
Operating Margin13.9%13.9%6.7%12.2%7.1%
Net Margin13.1%13.1%8.6%15.7%7.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.080.080.100.080.09
Current Ratio4.054.05———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$517.9M$517.9M$-585.1M$190.8M$453.1M
Returns
ROE6.4%6.4%3.7%6.8%5.8%
Valuation
P/E8.168.169.235.82—
EV/EBITDA1.111.11-0.63-1.08—
P/B0.540.540.350.39—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth21.4%21.4%5.5%-42.5%—
EPS Growth85.6%85.6%-42.3%——
Dividend Yield2.5%2.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-9.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$115.18

Spread vs growth

95.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-2.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$139.36

Spread vs growth

87.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

3.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$224.45

Spread vs growth

81.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +14.1%

Total return

+14.1%

Start / end P/E

13.9x → 8.4x

EPS bridge

83.73 → 155.41

Residual

-34.1%

EPS growth+85.6%
Multiple rerating-39.9%
Dividend+2.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-34.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.