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4990.T$481.00+0.00%
Fair $481.00+0.0%

4990.T

Showa Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$481.00

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $481.00Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $398.0M · quality 78.3/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 80/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4990.TLocal privado en este navegador · Showa Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.1B

P/E

8.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.5x

↓

ROE

5.1%

↑

Gross Margin

30.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.36

↑
52-Week Range$481
$452$590

TradingView lightweight chart

4990.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $481.00Periodo +100.4%
Fair value: $481.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.9%

FCF CAGR

+2.6%

FCF margin

4.3%

FCF / Net income

0.97x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $9.24B · net income $411.8M · FCF $398.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.8%-0.9% pts

Operating margin

3.7%-0.1% pts

Net margin

4.5%+0.0% pts

FCF margin

4.3%-0.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$9.24B$9.24B$9.20B$9.23B$7.78B
Net Income$411.8M$411.8M$584.4M$616.5M$345.0M
EBITDA$877.7M$877.7M$1.07B$1.13B$799.1M
EPS38.6738.6755.1158.2132.60
Gross Margin30.8%30.8%31.7%32.0%31.7%
Operating Margin3.7%3.7%5.5%6.5%3.9%
Net Margin4.5%4.5%6.4%6.7%4.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.360.360.420.540.68
Current Ratio2.022.02———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$398.0M$398.0M$521.7M$371.5M$368.4M
Returns
ROE5.1%5.1%7.7%9.1%5.6%
Valuation
P/E8.208.207.987.8211.72
EV/EBITDA5.515.514.434.856.22
P/B0.630.630.610.710.66
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.4%0.4%-0.3%18.6%—
EPS Growth-29.8%-29.8%-5.3%78.6%—
Dividend Yield1.3%1.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

3.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$42.68

Spread vs growth

-33.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

6.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$51.64

Spread vs growth

-35.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$83.17

Spread vs growth

-37.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +6.0%

Total return

+6.0%

Start / end P/E

8.3x → 12.4x

EPS bridge

55.11 → 38.67

Residual

-14.7%

EPS growth-29.8%
Multiple rerating+49.3%
Dividend+1.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-14.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.