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4998.T$1132.00+0.18%
Fair $1132.00+0.0%

4998.T

Fumakilla Limited

Basic Materials / Agricultural InputsTokyo

$1132.00

+2.00 (+0.18%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1132.00Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $98.0M · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 8/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4998.TLocal privado en este navegador · Fumakilla Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$18.7B

P/E

9.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.4x

↓

ROE

5.8%

↑

Gross Margin

30.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.66

↑
52-Week Range$1132
$1065$1261

TradingView lightweight chart

4998.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,132Periodo +260.5%
Fair value: $1,132

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+11.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.1%

FCF / Net income

0.07x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $73.85B · net income $1.46B · FCF $98.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.5%+0.8% pts

Operating margin

3.6%-0.6% pts

Net margin

2.0%-0.7% pts

FCF margin

0.1%+5.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$73.85B$73.85B$67.67B$61.71B$52.73B
Net Income$1.46B$1.46B$1.38B$668.0M$1.39B
EBITDA$4.67B$4.67B$4.47B$3.41B$4.02B
EPS88.7788.7783.5840.5884.42
Gross Margin30.5%30.5%29.6%28.7%29.7%
Operating Margin3.6%3.6%3.6%3.1%4.1%
Net Margin2.0%2.0%2.0%1.1%2.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.660.660.660.780.76
Current Ratio1.351.35———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$98.0M$98.0M$3.10B$-1.04B$-2.54B
Returns
ROE5.8%5.8%5.9%3.2%7.2%
Valuation
P/E9.129.1213.6226.2713.37
EV/EBITDA5.435.435.647.896.60
P/B0.740.740.810.850.97
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth9.1%9.1%9.7%17.0%—
EPS Growth6.2%6.2%106.0%-51.9%—
Dividend Yield2.1%2.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

4.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$100.45

Spread vs growth

2.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

6.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$121.54

Spread vs growth

-0.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$195.74

Spread vs growth

-2.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +4.6%

Total return

+4.6%

Start / end P/E

13.2x → 12.8x

EPS bridge

83.58 → 88.77

Residual

-0.2%

EPS growth+6.2%
Multiple rerating-3.5%
Dividend+2.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.