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5301.T$1852.50+4.07%
Fair $1852.50+0.0%

5301.T

Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$1852.50

+72.50 (+4.07%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1852.50Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 59/C
F-Score: 7/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $12.5B · quality 48.7/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 29/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

59/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 5301.TLocal privado en este navegador · Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$395.5B

P/E

18.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.7x

↓

ROE

6.3%

↑

Gross Margin

24.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.65

↑
52-Week Range$1853
$878$1865

TradingView lightweight chart

5301.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,853Periodo +989.7%
Fair value: $1,853

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.0%

FCF / Net income

0.65x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $322.96B · net income $20.08B · FCF $12.96B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

24.7%-2.9% pts

Operating margin

8.0%-3.9% pts

Net margin

6.2%-0.4% pts

FCF margin

4.0%+5.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$322.96B$322.96B$350.11B$363.95B$340.37B
Net Income$20.08B$20.08B$-56.48B$25.47B$22.42B
EBITDA$66.35B$66.35B$-3.46B$80.78B$78.14B
EPS94.0594.05-265.94119.45105.16
Gross Margin24.7%24.7%23.0%27.1%27.6%
Operating Margin8.0%8.0%5.5%10.6%11.9%
Net Margin6.2%6.2%-16.1%7.0%6.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.650.650.690.520.64
Current Ratio2.662.66———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$12.96B$12.96B$9.36B$12.46B$-4.01B
Returns
ROE6.3%6.3%-19.5%7.8%8.3%
Valuation
P/E18.9418.94—8.7110.09
EV/EBITDA7.737.73—3.894.18
P/B1.241.240.680.680.84
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.8%-7.8%-3.8%6.9%—
EPS Growth135.4%135.4%-322.6%13.6%—
Dividend Yield2.3%2.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

20.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$164.38

Spread vs growth

114.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

16.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$198.90

Spread vs growth

119.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$320.33

Spread vs growth

122.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +90.3%

Total return

+90.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-265.94 → 94.05

Residual

+88.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+88.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.