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5302.T$4630.00+0.11%
Fair $4630.00+0.0%

5302.T

Nippon Carbon Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsTokyo

$4630.00

+5.00 (+0.11%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4630.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 60/B
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $514.0M · quality 46.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

60/100

B

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 5302.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nippon Carbon Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$50.9B

P/E

10.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.0x

↓

ROE

8.9%

↑

Gross Margin

27.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.19

↓
52-Week Range$4630
$3990$5080

TradingView lightweight chart

5302.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4,630Periodo +432.2%
Fair value: $4,630

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.8%

FCF CAGR

-41.5%

FCF margin

2.1%

FCF / Net income

0.16x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $37.73B · net income $4.83B · FCF $791.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

27.2%-0.3% pts

Operating margin

12.7%-0.6% pts

Net margin

12.8%+3.9% pts

FCF margin

2.1%-9.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$37.73B$37.73B$37.96B$37.87B$35.80B
Net Income$4.83B$4.83B$4.08B$4.05B$3.19B
EBITDA$11.47B$11.47B$9.94B$9.69B$7.76B
EPS436.91436.91369.03366.75289.24
Gross Margin27.2%27.2%30.3%31.3%27.5%
Operating Margin12.7%12.7%16.7%17.4%13.4%
Net Margin12.8%12.8%10.7%10.7%8.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.190.190.180.180.20
Current Ratio2.762.76———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$791.0M$791.0M$514.0M$78.0M$3.96B
Returns
ROE8.9%8.9%7.8%8.2%7.0%
Valuation
P/E10.5910.5911.9112.0214.61
EV/EBITDA4.044.044.574.444.82
P/B0.940.940.930.981.02
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.6%-0.6%0.2%5.8%—
EPS Growth18.4%18.4%0.6%26.8%—
Dividend Yield4.3%4.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-2.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$410.84

Spread vs growth

20.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

2.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$497.11

Spread vs growth

15.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$800.60

Spread vs growth

12.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +13.5%

Total return

+13.5%

Start / end P/E

11.5x → 10.6x

EPS bridge

369.03 → 436.91

Residual

-1.4%

EPS growth+18.4%
Multiple rerating-7.8%
Dividend+4.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.