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5408.T$609.00-1.14%
Fair $609.00+0.0%

5408.T

Nakayama Steel Works, Ltd.

Basic Materials / SteelTokyo

$609.00

-7.00 (-1.14%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $609.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 53/C
F-Score: 4/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $3.0B · quality 48.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

53/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 5408.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nakayama Steel Works, Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$33.0B

P/E

13.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

2.4x

↓

ROE

5.3%

↑

Gross Margin

13.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.08

↓
52-Week Range$609
$551$706

TradingView lightweight chart

5408.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $609.00Periodo -50.9%
Fair value: $609.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

1.7%

FCF / Net income

0.52x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $169.33B · net income $5.70B · FCF $2.96B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.0%+1.2% pts

Operating margin

5.0%+0.6% pts

Net margin

3.4%+0.5% pts

FCF margin

1.7%+8.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$169.33B$169.33B$184.44B$188.51B$166.70B
Net Income$5.70B$5.70B$8.90B$10.23B$4.82B
EBITDA$11.23B$11.23B$15.05B$16.61B$9.19B
EPS105.14105.14164.43188.9288.96
Gross Margin13.0%13.0%13.6%13.8%11.9%
Operating Margin5.0%5.0%6.7%7.2%4.3%
Net Margin3.4%3.4%4.8%5.4%2.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.080.080.090.110.18
Current Ratio3.273.27———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.96B$2.96B$1.35B$9.28B$-11.29B
Returns
ROE5.3%5.3%8.5%10.6%5.4%
Valuation
P/E13.4013.405.534.814.78
EV/EBITDA2.382.382.812.572.53
P/B0.310.310.470.510.26
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.2%-8.2%-2.2%13.1%—
EPS Growth-36.1%-36.1%-13.0%112.4%—
Dividend Yield2.3%2.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-19.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$54.04

Spread vs growth

-16.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-9.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$65.39

Spread vs growth

-27.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

0.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$105.31

Spread vs growth

-36.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.6%

Total return

-3.6%

Start / end P/E

3.9x → 5.8x

EPS bridge

164.43 → 105.14

Residual

-17.0%

EPS growth-36.1%
Multiple rerating+47.2%
Dividend+2.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-17.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.