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600449.SS$13.94-3.86%
Fair $13.94+0.0%

600449.SS

Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.,Ltd

Basic Materials / Building MaterialsShanghai

$13.94

-0.56 (-3.86%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.94Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 57/C
F-Score: 5/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $487.6M · quality 65.3/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 55/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

57/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 2.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 600449.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.7B

P/E

35.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

6.6x

↓

ROE

2.5%

↑

Gross Margin

13.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.04

↓
52-Week Range$14
$12$15

TradingView lightweight chart

600449.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $13.94Periodo +412.8%
Fair value: $13.94

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-15.8%

FCF CAGR

+67.8%

FCF margin

16.5%

FCF / Net income

4.70x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.17B · net income $182.1M · FCF $855.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.6%+0.4% pts

Operating margin

5.9%-2.7% pts

Net margin

3.5%-2.6% pts

FCF margin

16.5%+14.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.17B$5.17B$8.65B$10.41B$8.66B
Net Income$182.1M$182.1M$241.4M$297.4M$529.0M
EBITDA$554.3M$554.3M$682.8M$752.7M$1.13B
EPS0.380.380.500.621.11
Gross Margin13.6%13.6%7.3%7.0%13.2%
Operating Margin5.9%5.9%2.9%3.2%8.7%
Net Margin3.5%3.5%2.8%2.9%6.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.040.040.100.130.06
Current Ratio3.233.23———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$855.0M$855.0M$459.6M$487.6M$181.0M
Returns
ROE2.5%2.5%3.3%4.2%7.5%
Valuation
P/E35.7435.7427.8028.2910.76
EV/EBITDA6.586.589.5910.904.14
P/B0.910.910.921.180.81
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-40.2%-40.2%-16.9%20.2%—
EPS Growth-24.0%-24.0%-19.4%-44.1%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

48.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.24

Spread vs growth

-72.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.50

Spread vs growth

-55.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.41

Spread vs growth

-44.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +1.0%

Total return

+1.0%

Start / end P/E

27.9x → 36.7x

EPS bridge

0.50 → 0.38

Residual

-7.6%

EPS growth-24.0%
Multiple rerating+31.5%
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-7.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.