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601368.SS$4.78+3.24%
Fair $4.78+0.0%

601368.SS

Guangxi Nanning Waterworks Group Company Limited

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated WaterShanghai

$4.78

+0.15 (+3.24%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.78Fund rank 19/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 21/D
F-Score: 5/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.1B · quality 40.3/100

Data gap 19/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

21/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 3.49, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is 2.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 601368.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Guangxi Nanning Waterworks Group Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.2B

P/E

34.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

15.7x

↑

ROE

2.0%

↓

Gross Margin

40.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

3.49

↑
52-Week Range$5
$4$6

TradingView lightweight chart

601368.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.780Periodo -48.4%
Fair value: $4.780

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-70.9%

FCF / Net income

-18.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.50B · net income $95.2M · FCF $-1.77B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

40.3%+3.9% pts

Operating margin

31.4%+2.9% pts

Net margin

3.8%-3.5% pts

FCF margin

-70.9%-7.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.50B$2.50B$2.48B$2.33B$2.25B
Net Income$95.2M$95.2M$87.9M$73.5M$163.8M
EBITDA$1.29B$1.29B$1.29B$1.19B$1.17B
EPS0.110.110.100.080.19
Gross Margin40.3%40.3%34.6%34.2%36.4%
Operating Margin31.4%31.4%26.8%26.2%28.5%
Net Margin3.8%3.8%3.5%3.2%7.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity3.493.493.062.882.56
Current Ratio0.700.70———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.77B$-1.77B$-1.06B$-1.03B$-1.42B
Returns
ROE2.0%2.0%1.9%1.6%3.5%
Valuation
P/E34.1434.1445.6866.5128.07
EV/EBITDA15.6915.6913.8514.8013.35
P/B0.880.880.851.050.99
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.0%1.0%6.3%3.4%—
EPS Growth8.2%8.2%19.6%-55.1%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

57.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.42

Spread vs growth

-49.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

36.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.51

Spread vs growth

-28.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.83

Spread vs growth

-14.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -1.4%

Total return

-1.4%

Start / end P/E

49.0x → 44.3x

EPS bridge

0.10 → 0.11

Residual

-0.8%

EPS growth+8.2%
Multiple rerating-9.5%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.