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601388.SS$3.51+1.45%
Fair $3.51+0.0%

601388.SS

Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd.

Basic Materials / AluminumShanghai

$3.51

+0.05 (+1.45%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3.51Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 8/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $27.3M · quality 47.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 3.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 601388.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.7B

P/E

39.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

15.6x

↑

ROE

3.6%

↑

Gross Margin

7.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.24

↑
52-Week Range$4
$2$5

TradingView lightweight chart

601388.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3.510Periodo +14.5%
Fair value: $3.510

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.3%

FCF CAGR

-64.5%

FCF margin

0.5%

FCF / Net income

0.20x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $7.60B · net income $169.8M · FCF $34.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.0%-3.9% pts

Operating margin

3.4%-4.0% pts

Net margin

2.2%-2.7% pts

FCF margin

0.5%-9.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$7.60B$7.60B$7.00B$6.80B$7.66B
Net Income$169.8M$169.8M$18.5M$132.9M$381.4M
EBITDA$527.0M$527.0M$315.1M$426.7M$696.4M
EPS0.080.080.010.060.17
Gross Margin7.0%7.0%5.2%8.0%10.9%
Operating Margin3.4%3.4%1.6%4.0%7.4%
Net Margin2.2%2.2%0.3%2.0%5.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.240.240.290.200.20
Current Ratio3.463.46———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$34.6M$34.6M$-518.8M$27.3M$775.4M
Returns
ROE3.6%3.6%0.4%3.1%9.0%
Valuation
P/E39.0039.00284.5243.3119.35
EV/EBITDA15.6215.6218.6813.9710.64
P/B1.651.651.201.341.75
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth8.5%8.5%3.0%-11.3%—
EPS Growth819.0%819.0%-86.1%-65.1%—
Dividend Yield0.7%0.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

59.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.31

Spread vs growth

759.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

37.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.38

Spread vs growth

781.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.61

Spread vs growth

796.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +38.9%

Total return

+38.9%

Start / end P/E

302.4x → 45.5x

EPS bridge

0.01 → 0.08

Residual

-695.9%

EPS growth+819.0%
Multiple rerating-85.0%
Dividend+0.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-695.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.