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603020.SS$10.20+4.40%
Fair $10.20+0.0%

603020.SS

Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsShanghai

$10.20

+0.43 (+4.40%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.20Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $74.5M · quality 48.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 19/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 2.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 603020.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.8B

P/E

42.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

16.1x

↑

ROE

2.6%

↑

Gross Margin

14.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$10
$8$13

TradingView lightweight chart

603020.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.20Periodo -30.8%
Fair value: $10.20

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-8.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.1%

FCF / Net income

-0.04x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.47B · net income $86.7M · FCF $-3.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

14.9%+0.5% pts

Operating margin

5.0%-0.2% pts

Net margin

3.5%+0.1% pts

FCF margin

-0.1%+3.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.47B$2.47B$2.68B$2.78B$3.20B
Net Income$86.7M$86.7M$159.1M$90.8M$110.0M
EBITDA$227.0M$227.0M$335.1M$215.5M$230.4M
EPS0.230.230.420.240.29
Gross Margin14.9%14.9%16.5%14.8%14.4%
Operating Margin5.0%5.0%6.3%4.5%5.2%
Net Margin3.5%3.5%5.9%3.3%3.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.040.03
Current Ratio15.7315.73———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-3.4M$-3.4M$130.4M$74.5M$-118.6M
Returns
ROE2.6%2.6%4.9%2.9%3.6%
Valuation
P/E42.5042.5017.3334.0234.15
EV/EBITDA16.1216.127.6412.9915.35
P/B1.171.170.850.981.22
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.0%-8.0%-3.6%-13.1%—
EPS Growth-45.5%-45.5%75.3%-16.5%—
Dividend Yield1.8%1.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

57.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.91

Spread vs growth

-103.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

36.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.10

Spread vs growth

-82.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.76

Spread vs growth

-68.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +22.0%

Total return

+22.0%

Start / end P/E

20.0x → 44.2x

EPS bridge

0.42 → 0.23

Residual

-54.9%

EPS growth-45.5%
Multiple rerating+120.6%
Dividend+1.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-54.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.