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603823.SS$28.07+9.99%
Fair $28.07+0.0%

603823.SS

Lily Group Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsShanghai

$28.07

+2.55 (+9.99%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $28.07Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 54/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $241.1M · quality 71.0/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 59/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

54/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 603823.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Lily Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$11.7B

P/E

72.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

30.3x

↑

ROE

6.8%

↑

Gross Margin

20.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$28
$10$28

TradingView lightweight chart

603823.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $28.07Periodo +204.3%
Fair value: $28.07

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.5%

FCF CAGR

+24.1%

FCF margin

4.6%

FCF / Net income

0.60x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.15B · net income $166.9M · FCF $99.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.9%+1.2% pts

Operating margin

10.3%+0.6% pts

Net margin

7.8%-0.9% pts

FCF margin

4.6%+2.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.15B$2.15B$2.40B$2.28B$2.47B
Net Income$166.9M$166.9M$176.1M$120.2M$214.5M
EBITDA$371.2M$371.2M$403.1M$319.7M$408.3M
EPS0.400.400.430.290.67
Gross Margin20.9%20.9%20.3%18.0%19.7%
Operating Margin10.3%10.3%10.4%7.8%9.7%
Net Margin7.8%7.8%7.3%5.3%8.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.060.090.11
Current Ratio2.992.99———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$99.4M$99.4M$290.6M$241.1M$52.1M
Returns
ROE6.8%6.8%7.5%5.5%10.0%
Valuation
P/E71.9771.9722.2833.5919.14
EV/EBITDA30.2830.288.4511.779.99
P/B4.764.761.661.831.91
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-10.5%-10.5%5.2%-7.5%—
EPS Growth-7.0%-7.0%48.3%-56.7%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

84.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.49

Spread vs growth

-91.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

49.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.01

Spread vs growth

-56.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

28.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.85

Spread vs growth

-35.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +168.0%

Total return

+168.0%

Start / end P/E

24.4x → 70.2x

EPS bridge

0.43 → 0.40

Residual

-13.1%

EPS growth-7.0%
Multiple rerating+187.7%
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-13.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.