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603969.SS$8.06+4.81%
Fair $8.06+0.0%

603969.SS

Silvery Dragon Group Co., Ltd. Tianjin

Basic Materials / SteelShanghai

$8.06

+0.37 (+4.81%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.06Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-102.9M · quality 40.0/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 603969.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Silvery Dragon Group Co., Ltd. Tianjin
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.0B

P/E

18.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.4x

↑

ROE

13.2%

↑

Gross Margin

25.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.34

↑
52-Week Range$8
$7$12

TradingView lightweight chart

603969.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.060Periodo +70.7%
Fair value: $8.060

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.2%

FCF CAGR

-5.7%

FCF margin

3.2%

FCF / Net income

0.28x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.21B · net income $365.7M · FCF $102.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.0%+11.7% pts

Operating margin

16.9%+10.5% pts

Net margin

11.4%+7.2% pts

FCF margin

3.2%-1.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.21B$3.21B$3.05B$2.75B$2.46B
Net Income$365.7M$365.7M$236.6M$171.6M$103.9M
EBITDA$561.4M$561.4M$369.4M$260.2M$192.5M
EPS0.430.430.280.200.12
Gross Margin25.0%25.0%18.5%15.1%13.3%
Operating Margin16.9%16.9%10.7%8.1%6.4%
Net Margin11.4%11.4%7.7%6.2%4.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.340.340.330.180.08
Current Ratio2.652.65———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$102.9M$102.9M$-130.8M$-102.9M$122.5M
Returns
ROE13.2%13.2%9.7%7.6%4.9%
Valuation
P/E18.7418.7423.0428.3042.42
EV/EBITDA13.3613.3616.2719.3622.12
P/B2.482.482.232.162.09
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.0%5.0%11.1%11.6%—
EPS Growth53.6%53.6%40.0%66.7%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

18.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.72

Spread vs growth

35.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

15.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.87

Spread vs growth

38.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.39

Spread vs growth

41.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +8.9%

Total return

+8.9%

Start / end P/E

26.7x → 18.7x

EPS bridge

0.28 → 0.43

Residual

-15.9%

EPS growth+53.6%
Multiple rerating-29.7%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-15.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.