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603977.SS$15.40-0.52%
Fair $15.40+0.0%

603977.SS

Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsShanghai

$15.40

-0.08 (-0.52%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $15.40Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-29.8M · quality 40.3/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 603977.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.6B

P/E

38.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

21.9x

↑

ROE

7.4%

↑

Gross Margin

36.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.57

↑
52-Week Range$15
$11$18

TradingView lightweight chart

603977.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $15.40Periodo +195.3%
Fair value: $15.40

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-10.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.96x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.36B · net income $252.2M · FCF $-242.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

36.3%+0.9% pts

Operating margin

15.5%-1.3% pts

Net margin

10.7%+4.0% pts

FCF margin

-10.3%-17.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.36B$2.36B$2.35B$2.54B$2.15B
Net Income$252.2M$252.2M$180.7M$305.5M$143.7M
EBITDA$468.5M$468.5M$393.1M$509.9M$320.6M
EPS0.410.410.290.490.24
Gross Margin36.3%36.3%36.6%35.9%35.4%
Operating Margin15.5%15.5%16.6%17.0%16.8%
Net Margin10.7%10.7%7.7%12.0%6.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.570.570.360.360.29
Current Ratio1.451.45———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-242.0M$-242.0M$-23.1M$-29.8M$146.7M
Returns
ROE7.4%7.4%5.6%9.8%5.0%
Valuation
P/E38.5038.5041.1020.4136.04
EV/EBITDA21.9121.9119.4312.1915.78
P/B2.772.772.312.001.81
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.3%0.3%-7.3%18.0%—
EPS Growth41.4%41.4%-40.8%104.2%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

49.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.37

Spread vs growth

-8.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

32.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.65

Spread vs growth

9.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.66

Spread vs growth

20.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +25.5%

Total return

+25.5%

Start / end P/E

42.5x → 37.6x

EPS bridge

0.29 → 0.41

Residual

-4.8%

EPS growth+41.4%
Multiple rerating-11.7%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.